The current average number of deaths in the Western Cape has increased to 60 per day, according to the province’s seven-day moving average.
This number is expected to start rising steeply as we approach the peak of the third wave, according to Provincial Head of Health Dr Keith Cloete, who was delivering his presentation at Premier Alan Winde’s weekly digicon on the health platform and vaccine rollout strategy.
“We are accelerating towards a peak with increased hospitalisations. Deaths have also risen significantly in the last 10 days.”
Dr Cloete said that all provinces except KwaZulu-Natal are in a third wave and that in Gauteng, the number of cases is continuing to decrease.
A seven-day moving average is calculated by taking the deaths from the last seven days, adding them up then dividing by seven. It is this average that is then plotted on the graph. The figure “moves” every day, which is why they call it a moving average.
Cloete said: “Across the province, case numbers are continuing to increase. We are currently seeing an average of 2 335 new diagnoses each day. During the second wave’s peak, the figure was 3 060 cases per day.
“Hospital admissions are increasing, with an average of 280 new admissions per day. Deaths have also increased now, with around 60 deaths each day.”
Specifically, in the metro, there has been a 21% week-on-week increase in cases. He said most sub-districts are seeing increases in cases, except the Eastern sub-district, which may be starting to plateau.
“This plateauing could be due to data or operational delays, and so we will be monitoring it closely to see if the pattern is sustained,” said Dr Cloete.
While the province hasn’t come close to the average number of deaths during the second wave, it has surpassed the number of that first wave.
During the second wave, the province’s peaked averaged at 146 deaths per day, and in the first wave the peak was 46 deaths per day.
-IOL
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