The Peruvians who are ranked 11th in the world – two places ahead of England – have been given a 5% chance of lifting the trophy in Moscow on 15 July, while Gareth Southgate’s side has a 4% chance, the same as Belgium and Portugal.
England has less chance of winning the Fifa World Cup than Peru, according to sports data company Gracenote. Five-time champions Brazil are favourites with a 21% chance of winning the tournament, ahead of Spain, Germany, and Argentina.
So how far will England get?
England faces Tunisia, Panama, and Belgium in Group G and they have a 71% chance of reaching the knock-out rounds. That calculation is based on one million simulations of the World Cup run by Gracenote, with points awarded for each match based on the probability of a win/draw/defeat based on the ranking of each side.
If they qualify from Group G, England will face either Poland, Senegal, Colombia or Japan from Group H in the last 16 and are predicted to have a 41% chance of progressing.
But their odds tumble in the quarter-finals – where they could face the likes of Germany or Brazil – with an 18% chance of reaching the semis and 9% chance of making the final.
What about the rest?
- There is a 47% chance of a first-time winner, so someone other than Argentina, Brazil, France, Germany, Spain, England or Uruguay.
- Latin American and European teams will dominate, with 10 of the last 16 being from Europe, five from South America and one from Central America
- African side Senegal, in Group H, have a 45% chance of breaking the mould and qualifying for the last 16
- Peru, who are playing at the World Cup for the first time since 1982, is tipped to be this tournament’s surprise packages with a 22% chance to be in the final four
- Colombia has a 21% chance of reaching the semis.
Source: BBC News