Nigeria and Angola are set to take the lead in Africa’s push for energy self-sufficiency, as the continent’s refining capacity is expected to surge to 90%—a dramatic leap from just 45% in the previous year, according to the Africa Finance Corporation’s (AFC) newly released State of Africa’s Infrastructure Report 2025.
The report outlines a rapidly shifting energy landscape in Africa, driven by a wave of refinery investments and infrastructure upgrades. At the center of this transformation is Nigeria, bolstered by the commissioning of the 650,000 barrels-per-day Dangote Refinery and the phased rehabilitation of its state-owned Port Harcourt and Warri refineries between 2024 and 2026.
According to the AFC, these developments are propelling Africa toward petroleum product self-sufficiency. However, the report warns that for this vision to become reality, significant upgrades in transportation, storage, and distribution infrastructure are essential.
“Over $16 billion in brownfield investments are needed to modernize existing refineries, meet cleaner fuel standards, and cut dependency on imports,” the report states. “In addition, greenfield investments are critical to future demand, with Nigeria and Angola emerging as new continental refining hubs.”
Nigeria, Angola Poised to Lead Africa’s Energy Independence Drive — AFC Report
Currently, Africa relies heavily on imported fuel—meeting 55% of its petroleum demand through imports in 2023. But the AFC projects this figure could plummet to just 10% if new and existing refining capacity is fully optimized.
The report emphasizes that the Dangote Refinery, alongside the gradual reopening of other Nigerian refineries, could dramatically improve fuel availability and reduce import costs across the continent in the short term.
Still, the AFC cautions that Dangote’s facility alone won’t be enough to meet the continent’s rising demand, especially given ongoing refinery shutdowns in countries like Libya and South Africa, and recurring disruptions in Egypt.
One of the major challenges identified is access to crude oil feedstock. Many oil-producing countries—including Nigeria—prioritize long-term export contracts, leaving limited supply for domestic refining. Nigeria, despite being Africa’s largest oil producer, often fails to meet its own refining needs, even while supplying crude to other African nations like Côte d’Ivoire and Senegal.
The report stresses that for Africa to fully unlock its refining potential, it must overcome persistent challenges in:
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Feedstock availability
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Financing for greenfield and brownfield projects
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Transport and distribution bottlenecks
“The sector’s growth is closely tied to modernising existing refineries, securing crude oil allocations for domestic use, and addressing infrastructure inefficiencies in pipelines, railways, and port facilities,” the AFC notes.
A major revelation in the report is Africa’s overreliance on road transport for fuel distribution. A staggering 83% of petroleum products are currently moved by trucks—leading to high costs, road congestion, and significant inefficiencies.
To address this, the AFC calls for a shift toward rail and pipeline infrastructure. Despite their cost-effectiveness, many railway-connected depots in countries like Cameroon, Angola, the DRC, and South Africa are in disrepair and need urgent rehabilitation.
The report also advocates for future-ready pipelines that can carry multiple fuel types—including sustainable aviation fuel, LPG, and hydrogen—ensuring long-term viability and investor interest.
“Pipelines should be designed with adaptability in mind, capable of handling current and future energy forms,” the report advises. “This multi-fuel flexibility will enhance resilience and support Africa’s long-term energy transition.”
To realize these ambitious targets, the AFC underscores the need for:
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Robust policy frameworks that incentivize private investment
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Blended financing models combining public and private capital
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Regional cooperation to strengthen cross-border energy infrastructure
In particular, West and Southern Africa are identified as key regions for a new wave of refinery development that could reduce fuel import bills and boost cleaner, local fuel production.
Looking Ahead
The AFC report concludes with a clear message: energy independence for Africa is within reach, but it demands coordinated investment, smart policies, and forward-thinking infrastructure development.
With Nigeria and Angola taking the lead, and if supported by region-wide reform and infrastructure transformation, Africa could soon shift from a fuel-dependent continent to a fuel-secure one—laying the groundwork for economic growth and energy resilience in the decades to come.