Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s longest-serving prime minister and one of its most polarizing political figures, is once again navigating turbulent political waters. Often described as a political phoenix, Netanyahu has dominated Israeli politics for decades, surviving scandals, elections, and coalition collapses. But now, as tensions rise within his right-wing alliance following his acceptance of a US-brokered Gaza ceasefire, Netanyahu’s focus appears to be shifting toward Israel’s next elections — possibly sooner than expected.
After decades at the pinnacle of Israeli politics, Benjamin now leads one of the most right-wing coalitions in the country’s history. However, his grip on power has weakened in recent months. The departure of an ultra-Orthodox party in July — protesting the government’s failure to pass a military service exemption law — left Netanyahu’s coalition with just 60 of the Knesset’s 120 seats.
This razor-thin balance means his government currently lacks a clear parliamentary majority, leaving it vulnerable to votes of no confidence and internal dissent. The summer parliamentary recess temporarily shielded Netanyahu from immediate political fallout, but as the Knesset resumed on October 20, the challenges quickly resurfaced.
The Gaza ceasefire agreement, which came into effect on October 10 under US pressure, has triggered outrage among His far-right allies. Many believe the military should have continued its offensive to reclaim full control of Gaza and eliminate Hamas completely. Their anger has weakened the coalition further, creating uncertainty about its ability to survive the coming months.
Netanyahu’s Political Calculations
Political analyst Michael Horowitz described the current situation bluntly:
“The coalition has been weakened by the ceasefire agreement. For Netanyahu, the issue is no longer just preserving his coalition until the end, but positioning himself to win the next elections — even if they are brought forward.”
In a televised interview on October 18, Netanyahu confirmed his intention to run again in the next elections and expressed confidence in his chances of victory. Officially, the polls are scheduled for October 2026, but there is growing speculation that Netanyahu could call early elections — potentially as soon as June 2026 — if the coalition’s instability worsens.
Far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir has already threatened to withdraw support unless the government pushes forward his proposed “death penalty for terrorists” bill by November 9. Meanwhile, the ultra-Orthodox Shas party continues to demand that military service exemptions for its members be written into law, threatening to pull its support if the issue remains unresolved.
These internal divisions reveal the deep ideological fractures within Netanyahu’s coalition — a political alliance united by convenience rather than consensus.
Netanyahu now faces the delicate task of balancing the demands of his far-right and ultra-Orthodox partners while maintaining international credibility. The far-right factions want to reinitiate military operations in Gaza and even push for annexation of parts of the occupied West Bank, moves that would further strain relations with Washington.
On the other hand, his ultra-Orthodox allies are primarily focused on domestic concerns — particularly military conscription laws — and have distanced themselves from the government after their ministers resigned in July.
For Netanyahu, failure to appease both sides could mean the end of his coalition. Yet, appeasing them simultaneously may be impossible without alienating Israel’s global partners or moderate voters ahead of the next election cycle.
Despite growing public dissatisfaction with the government’s handling of the war, polls show Netanyahu’s Likud party remains the frontrunner. Analysts say this resilience stems from Netanyahu’s enduring reputation as a strong, experienced leader who can navigate crises — a perception that has helped him survive numerous political storms, including corruption trials and fierce opposition protests.
Israeli newspaper Calcalist recently reported that Netanyahu’s coalition may soon push for new laws to strengthen its position before elections. These include proposals to lower the electoral threshold — benefiting smaller far-right parties like Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionism party — and reduce the voting age to 17, which would boost turnout among ultra-Orthodox youth who strongly support Netanyahu’s bloc.
Such strategic moves suggest that Netanyahu is already preparing for a potential early election, positioning himself as both the defender of Israel’s security and the steady hand capable of guiding the country through uncertainty.
Even as he faces corruption trials and criticism from across the political spectrum, Netanyahu remains confident in his leadership. At 76, he has outlasted nearly all his political rivals and continues to shape Israel’s domestic and foreign policy agenda.
He is expected to be re-elected unopposed as leader of Likud at the end of November — a clear sign that his dominance within the party remains unchallenged.
Still, the road ahead is fraught with risks. The fragile ceasefire in Gaza, disputes over conscription, and rising tensions with coalition partners all threaten to upend the government. But as history has shown, Benjamin Netanyahu is no stranger to political survival.
Whether he manages to hold his coalition together or opts for early elections, one thing is certain — Netanyahu’s influence on Israel’s political future remains as formidable as ever.
Source- EWN
